TT

Theiler Trust

Strategic Intelligence

MARKET REGIME

TRANSITIONAL

Assessing conditions...

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Fear & Greed
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VIX
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🏛️ Fed Funds Rate

--%
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📈 Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)

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💳 HY Credit Spread

--%
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Credit stress indicator

🚰 Liquidity Dashboard Raoul Pal Framework

Net Liquidity

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Fed Balance Sheet

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RRP (Reverse Repo)

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Nearly drained ✓

TGA (Treasury)

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Waiting to deploy

📊 Liquidity Thesis

RRP nearly drained, TGA rebuild ongoing. Post-shutdown resolution → TGA drawdown → Liquidity flood → Risk assets rip.

🏭 Business Conditions & Liquidity FRED Real-Time

Industrial Production

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Leading Index

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Consumer Sentiment

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Initial Claims

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Dollar Index

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Business Conditions

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Consumer Health

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Labor Market

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📊 Economic Health

Unemployment Rate
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M2 Money Supply
-- trillions
Total Credit
-- trillions
CPI Index --

🎯 Catalyst Triggers

Shutdown Resolution WATCHING
eSLR Exemption PENDING
First Warsh Rate Cut PENDING
TGA Drawdown Begins PENDING

🏆 Top 20 Crypto Assets CMC Real-Time

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Top 20 Market Cap

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Bullish (7d >10%)

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Bearish (7d <-10%)

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Avg 30d Change

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# Asset Price 7D 14D 30D 60D Market Cap Circulating % Supply Model
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🚀 Weekly Leaders

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📉 Weekly Laggards

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🧠 Current Macro Thesis

Thesis

Liquidity Drought → Flood

Source: Raoul Pal (Feb 2026)

US liquidity constrained by RRP drain, TGA rebuild. Post-shutdown: eSLR, fiscal stimulus, rate cuts. 2026 = huge bull.

Playbook

Greenspan 1995-2000 Replay

  • • Cut rates, let economy run hot
  • • AI productivity subdues inflation
  • • Risk assets = major beneficiary
  • • Full cycle investing — time, not price

⚡ Strategic Actions

Wait for Shutdown Resolution

Primary catalyst for liquidity release

Deploy Cash on eSLR

$454K SWVXX ready to deploy

Accumulate on Fear

Fear & Greed at extreme lows = opportunity