MARKET REGIME
Assessing conditions...
🏛️ Fed Funds Rate
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📈 Yield Curve (10Y-2Y)
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💳 HY Credit Spread
Credit stress indicator
🚰 Liquidity Dashboard Raoul Pal Framework
Net Liquidity
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Fed Balance Sheet
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RRP (Reverse Repo)
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Nearly drained ✓
TGA (Treasury)
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Waiting to deploy
📊 Liquidity Thesis
RRP nearly drained, TGA rebuild ongoing. Post-shutdown resolution → TGA drawdown → Liquidity flood → Risk assets rip.
🏭 Business Conditions & Liquidity FRED Real-Time
Industrial Production
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Leading Index
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Consumer Sentiment
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Initial Claims
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Dollar Index
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Business Conditions
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Consumer Health
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Labor Market
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📊 Economic Health
🎯 Catalyst Triggers
🏆 Top 20 Crypto Assets CMC Real-Time
Top 20 Market Cap
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Bullish (7d >10%)
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Bearish (7d <-10%)
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Avg 30d Change
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| # | Asset | Price | 7D | 14D | 30D | 60D | Market Cap | Circulating % | Supply Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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🚀 Weekly Leaders
📉 Weekly Laggards
🧠 Current Macro Thesis
Thesis
Liquidity Drought → Flood
Source: Raoul Pal (Feb 2026)
US liquidity constrained by RRP drain, TGA rebuild. Post-shutdown: eSLR, fiscal stimulus, rate cuts. 2026 = huge bull.
Playbook
Greenspan 1995-2000 Replay
- • Cut rates, let economy run hot
- • AI productivity subdues inflation
- • Risk assets = major beneficiary
- • Full cycle investing — time, not price
⚡ Strategic Actions
Wait for Shutdown Resolution
Primary catalyst for liquidity release
Deploy Cash on eSLR
$454K SWVXX ready to deploy
Accumulate on Fear
Fear & Greed at extreme lows = opportunity